← Penang’s First Ever Grand Archive Regional
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Penang’s First Ever Grand Archive Regional
decks
3
(3.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
8-12-1
overall winrate
40.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.4%
avg ELO -2.1 per match
expected value
45.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1194
· median 1214
· range 1134–1235
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
993
Q1 1189
Q3 1404
1571
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.1% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 36.3% | -8.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Water Genbu | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Slimes | 4.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.7% | -7.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -6.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.3% | -12.2 |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.7% | +12.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.4 |
| Wind Jin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
