← Penang’s First Ever Grand Archive Regional
Water Crux AssassinTier 3
at Penang’s First Ever Grand Archive Regional
decks
1
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
2-4-1
overall winrate
35.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
31.7%
avg ELO -9.2 per match
expected value
47.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1466
· median 1466
· range 1466–1466
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
993
Q1 1189
Q3 1404
1571
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Water Fractal | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -20.7 |
| Wind Allies | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Assassin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
