← Card Merchant Hamilton PTM Regionals
Water AlliesTier 2
at Card Merchant Hamilton PTM Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.7% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.4% | +1.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.3% | +7.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -5.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Suited | 5.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.7% | -13.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.9% | +15.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Expulsion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brackish Lutist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |