← Card Merchant Hamilton PTM Regionals
Water Crux MageTier 2
at Card Merchant Hamilton PTM Regionals
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-1-1
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.3%
avg ELO +6.6 per match
expected value
51.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1427
· median 1427
· range 1427–1427
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1043
Q1 1222
Q3 1430
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
| Water Allies | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
