← Card Merchant Hamilton PTM Regionals
Water Astra RangerTier 2
at Card Merchant Hamilton PTM Regionals
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.0%
avg ELO +3.7 per match
expected value
45.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1198
· median 1198
· range 1198–1198
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1043
Q1 1222
Q3 1430
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 42.9% | -5.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.2% | +25.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
| Fire Suited | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Astra Ranger decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
