← Card Merchant Hamilton PTM Regionals
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Card Merchant Hamilton PTM Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.3% | +2.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.5% | -13.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 8.8% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.6% | -1.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.3% | -4.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.8% | -5.0 |
| Fire Suited | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verdigris Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Calming Breeze | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reclaim | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Aesan Protector | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Channeling Stone | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadowstrike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 |