← Card Merchant Hamilton PTM Regionals
Water FractalTier 2
at Card Merchant Hamilton PTM Regionals
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-5-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.8%
avg ELO -8.6 per match
expected value
44.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1217
· median 1217
· range 1217–1217
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1043
Q1 1222
Q3 1430
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 8.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.1% | -15.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Fire Suited | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
