← Brunei Phantom Monarch Regionals

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Brunei Phantom Monarch Regionals. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd
Fire Luxem Assassin
57.5%
2.6% share · 6 matches
↑ top
1st
Water Luxem Assassin
61.9%
5.3% share · 10 matches
↑ top
3rd
Wind Shadowstrike
56.2%
5.3% share · 10 matches
↑ top
#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Luxem Assassin 2 5.3% 10 90.0% 69.4% 61.9% 57.3% 1391 ↑ top
2 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 2.6% 6 83.3% 54.2% 57.5% 51.4% 1532 ↑ top
3 Wind Shadowstrike 2 5.3% 10 80.0% 61.7% 56.2% 52.5% 1405 ↑ top
4 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 2.6% 6 66.7% 59.5% 53.3% 53.4% 1205 ↓ low
5 Fire Oblation 1 2.6% 7 71.4% 57.2% 53.1% 50.4% 1367 ↑ top
6 Water Genbu 3 7.9% 18 58.3% 59.8% 52.5% 53.3% 1268 —
7 Water Aetherwing 3 7.9% 16 56.2% 60.0% 52.4% 54.4% 1258 —
8 Wind Umbra Ranger 1 2.6% 6 66.7% 54.3% 52.0% 50.7% 1334 ↑ top
9 Fire Crux Merlin 1 2.6% 6 50.0% 46.0% 51.4% 49.8% 1292 —
10 Wind Seiryuu 3 7.9% 15 46.7% 50.1% 49.9% 51.0% 1257 —
11 Fire Crux Mage 2 5.3% 12 50.0% 55.9% 49.1% 51.1% 1192 ↓ low
12 Wind Arcane 3 7.9% 14 53.6% 51.6% 48.8% 47.3% 1226 —
13 Fire Polkhawk 1 2.6% 6 33.3% 42.1% 47.3% 47.5% 1125 ↓ low
14 Fire Firebloom Burn 3 7.9% 18 44.4% 56.8% 47.0% 50.6% 1174 ↓ low
15 Fire Aetherwing 3 7.9% 17 41.2% 48.0% 46.7% 47.3% 1175 ↓ low
16 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 2.6% 6 41.7% 39.7% 46.7% 44.5% 1297 —
17 Water Allies 1 2.6% 6 33.3% 27.5% 45.5% 40.5% 1365 ↑ top
18 Water Ravishing Mill 1 2.6% 6 33.3% 27.5% 45.5% 40.5% 1365 ↑ top
19 Fire Suited 1 2.6% 5 30.0% 46.9% 45.0% 47.8% 1108 ↓ low
20 Fire Slimes 1 2.6% 5 20.0% 46.0% 45.0% 49.5% 1100 ↓ low
21 Water Crux Mage 1 2.6% 6 33.3% 35.4% 43.6% 41.7% 1253 —
22 Water Astra Diana 1 2.6% 6 16.7% 30.3% 43.0% 43.4% 1119 ↓ low
23 Wind Allies 1 2.6% 3 0.0% 28.4% 40.0% 39.6% 1303 ↑ top
24 Fire Aggro 1 2.6% 6 16.7% 38.8% 40.0% 43.3% 1103 ↓ low