Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at 3/29 Store Championship
decks
1
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.9%
avg ELO -2.7 per match
expected value
48.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1264
· median 1264
· range 1264–1264
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1092
Q1 1231
Q3 1325
1560
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.7% | -7.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
