Wind Wakeup ComboTier 2
at 3/29 Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.8% | +5.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.5% | -2.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Water Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Wind Slimes | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concealed Marksman | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Steady Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Invective Instruction | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reconnaissance Scout | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Aether's Embrace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Peer Beyond | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Palvor Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Draught of Stamina | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dodge Roll | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |