Water Umbra CielTier 2
at 3/29 Store Championship
decks
1
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.9%
avg ELO -3.9 per match
expected value
47.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1231
· median 1231
· range 1231–1231
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1092
Q1 1231
Q3 1325
1560
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 14.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -2.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
