Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at 3/29 Store Championship
decks
4
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
8-7-4
overall winrate
52.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.9%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1284
· median 1258
· range 1210–1410
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1092
Q1 1231
Q3 1325
1560
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.7% | +4.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 14.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.5% | +2.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.4% | +10.0 |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 36.4% | -10.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.3% | +7.0 |
| Water Slimes | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.6 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.8 |
| Wind Slimes | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
