EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at canyon store champion.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 3 | 13.6% | 17 | 64.7% | 49.4% | 56.1% | 51.8% | 1465 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 66.7% | 62.4% | 54.4% | 56.5% | 1310 | — |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 9.1% | 10 | 50.0% | 51.7% | 53.6% | 54.4% | 1304 | — |
| 4 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 57.8% | 53.3% | 54.0% | 1227 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 70.0% | 67.2% | 53.1% | 57.3% | 1277 | — |
| 6 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 51.6% | 52.0% | 55.3% | 1201 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Allies | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 62.9% | 51.4% | 56.3% | 1308 | — |
| 8 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 13.6% | 16 | 62.5% | 52.3% | 51.1% | 48.7% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 44.7% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 1206 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 48.2% | 48.0% | 46.5% | 1364 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.6% | 47.5% | 49.5% | 1226 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Suited | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 54.4% | 46.0% | 50.8% | 1234 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 13.6% | 10 | 25.0% | 34.4% | 41.9% | 43.9% | 1332 | — |
| 14 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 20.0% | 35.7% | 40.0% | 41.5% | 1124 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Umbra Alice | 1 | 4.5% | 4 | 0.0% | 32.5% | 40.0% | 43.7% | 1362 | ↑ top |