Fire Crux MerlinTier 3
at Mercurial Heart Charity Cup
decks
1
(1.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
1-5-1
overall winrate
21.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
32.8%
avg ELO -8.7 per match
expected value
41.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1254
· median 1254
· range 1254–1254
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1241
Q3 1434
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 18.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Water Fractal | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
