Wind SeiryuuTier 1
at Mercurial Heart Charity Cup
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 18.1% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 62.0% | +6.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.6% | -15.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.6% | -12.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Water Fractal | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Water Neos | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 62.2% | +9.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.3% | -9.0 |
| Water Chess | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.6 |
| Wind Neos | 1.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.4% | +12.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Wind Seiryuu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 12 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 12 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enfeebling Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seiryuu's Command | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Gyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |