Fire OblationTier 2
at Mercurial Heart Charity Cup
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 18.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 44.0% | -3.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +2.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.1% | +8.8 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.3% | +4.7 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.2% | +6.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.7% | -16.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | -16.0 |
| Water Neos | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.0% | +11.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.7 |
| Water Chess | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +3.1 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Golden Checkmate, Reduce to Ash, Spring Cleaning. Losers more often ran: Smoke Out, Varuckan Acolyte.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Checkmate | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spring Cleaning | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ionized Asceticism | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Benediction Angel | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reflected Blight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |