Horse and TaxesTier 2
at Mercurial Heart Charity Cup
decks
2
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
5-5-3
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.3%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
47.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1242
· median 1242
· range 1121–1362
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1241
Q3 1434
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 18.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.5% | -12.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.3% | +16.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.3% | -7.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.8% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
