Mercurial Heart Charity Cup

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Water Aetherwing	Tier 1	13	18.1%	37-26-5	58.1%	58.3%	52.4%	52.6%	1331	—
2		Wind Seiryuu	Tier 1	6	8.3%	22-14-3	60.3%	55.9%	55.6%	53.3%	1492	↑ top
3		Fire Oblation	Tier 2	5	6.9%	13-15-1	46.6%	48.9%	46.5%	48.9%	1360	—
4		Fire Aggro	Tier 2	3	4.2%	7-14-0	33.3%	48.9%	42.1%	45.8%	1188	↓ low
5		Water Genbu	Tier 1	3	4.2%	12-6-3	64.3%	54.8%	53.4%	51.0%	1428	↑ top
6		Water Tera Kongming	Tier 2	3	4.2%	7-8-4	47.4%	52.2%	45.3%	47.8%	1285	—
7		Wind Crux Lorraine	Tier 1	3	4.2%	8-8-4	50.0%	45.5%	48.1%	46.8%	1317	—
8		Wind Razorgale	Tier 1	3	4.2%	11-5-2	66.7%	59.1%	54.1%	53.9%	1373	—
9		Fire Crux Lorraine	Tier 2	2	2.8%	6-5-0	54.5%	41.7%	53.8%	47.3%	1441	↑ top
10		Fire Suzaku	Tier 2	2	2.8%	3-8-2	30.8%	38.1%	40.0%	39.9%	1347	—
11		Fire Umbra Guardian	Tier 2	2	2.8%	9-4-1	67.9%	59.6%	51.0%	52.0%	1378	—
12		Horse and Taxes	Tier 2	2	2.8%	5-5-3	50.0%	50.3%	47.3%	48.3%	1242	↓ low
13		Water Astra Cleric	Tier 2	2	2.8%	5-5-4	50.0%	49.2%	46.7%	47.2%	1322	—
14		Water Fractal	Tier 2	2	2.8%	9-4-1	67.9%	59.0%	58.8%	55.8%	1419	↑ top
15		Water Neos	Tier 2	2	2.8%	6-4-4	57.1%	50.6%	50.6%	49.6%	1368	—
16		Wind Astra Cleric	Tier 2	2	2.8%	2-11-0	15.4%	33.6%	40.9%	44.7%	1163	↓ low
17		Wind Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	2	2.8%	7-6-1	53.6%	50.3%	53.9%	50.6%	1531	↑ top
18		Fire Arcane	Tier 2	1	1.4%	3-2-2	57.1%	58.4%	49.5%	49.5%	1308	—
19		Fire Astra Cleric	Tier 3	1	1.4%	3-2-2	57.1%	49.5%	47.5%	46.3%	1465	↑ top
20		Fire Byakko	Tier 3	1	1.4%	1-3-0	25.0%	44.1%	41.2%	46.1%	1344	—
21		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 3	1	1.4%	1-3-0	25.0%	44.1%	41.2%	46.1%	1344	—
22		Fire Crux Merlin	Tier 3	1	1.4%	1-5-1	21.4%	32.8%	41.7%	45.3%	1254	↓ low
23		Fire Firebloom Burn	Tier 3	1	1.4%	1-5-0	16.7%	40.4%	40.8%	44.5%	1032	↓ low
24		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 3	1	1.4%	1-4-1	25.0%	36.0%	46.3%	46.5%	1076	↓ low
25		Slimes	Tier 3	1	1.4%	3-3-1	50.0%	60.3%	47.3%	50.5%	1241	↓ low
26		Water Chess	Tier 3	1	1.4%	2-4-1	35.7%	41.6%	46.5%	46.6%	1345	—
27		Water Crux Mage	Tier 2	1	1.4%	4-1-2	71.4%	54.1%	53.9%	51.4%	1561	↑ top
28		Water Luxem Assassin	Tier 3	1	1.4%	3-4-1	43.8%	44.4%	44.0%	42.5%	1262	↓ low
29		Water Tera Mage	Tier 3	1	1.4%	0-5-1	8.3%	41.5%	41.4%	46.6%	1002	↓ low
30		Water Whirlpool Mill	Tier 3	1	1.4%	2-4-0	33.3%	40.4%	43.3%	43.4%	1310	—
31		Wind Luxem Zander	Tier 2	1	1.4%	3-2-2	57.1%	47.3%	51.1%	49.4%	1393	—
32		Wind Neos	Tier 3	1	1.4%	2-5-0	28.6%	37.4%	40.7%	41.3%	1304	—
33		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 2	1	1.4%	3-2-2	57.1%	49.9%	53.2%	51.0%	1325	—

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Water Aetherwing 13 decks · 18.1%
• Wind Seiryuu 6 decks · 8.3%
• Fire Oblation 5 decks · 6.9%
• Fire Aggro 3 decks · 4.2%
• Water Genbu 3 decks · 4.2%
• Water Tera Kongming 3 decks · 4.2%
• Wind Crux Lorraine 3 decks · 4.2%
• Wind Razorgale 3 decks · 4.2%
• Fire Crux Lorraine 2 decks · 2.8%
• Fire Suzaku 2 decks · 2.8%
• Fire Umbra Guardian 2 decks · 2.8%
• Horse and Taxes 2 decks · 2.8%
• Water Astra Cleric 2 decks · 2.8%
• Water Fractal 2 decks · 2.8%
• Water Neos 2 decks · 2.8%
• Wind Astra Cleric 2 decks · 2.8%
• Wind Luxem Assassin 2 decks · 2.8%
• Fire Arcane 1 deck · 1.4%
• Fire Astra Cleric 1 deck · 1.4%
• Fire Byakko 1 deck · 1.4%
• Fire Crux Mage 1 deck · 1.4%
• Fire Crux Merlin 1 deck · 1.4%
• Fire Firebloom Burn 1 deck · 1.4%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 1.4%
• Slimes 1 deck · 1.4%
• Water Chess 1 deck · 1.4%
• Water Crux Mage 1 deck · 1.4%
• Water Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 1.4%
• Water Tera Mage 1 deck · 1.4%
• Water Whirlpool Mill 1 deck · 1.4%
• Wind Luxem Zander 1 deck · 1.4%
• Wind Neos 1 deck · 1.4%
• Wind Shadowstrike 1 deck · 1.4%