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Fire Crux MageTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.1 |
| Slimes | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.3% | -6.2 |
| Fire Suited | 5.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -3.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.4% | -6.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +3.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.4 |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.2 |
| Water Kongming | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -5.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Water Slice & Dice | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Wind Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.2 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 11 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 11 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Facet the Forgotten | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |