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Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Reaper Game Store - Texas Regional
decks
3
(5.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
9-8-1
overall winrate
52.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.1%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
50.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1346
· median 1339
· range 1278–1420
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1016
Q1 1206
Q3 1350
1607
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +3.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.5 |
| Fire Suited | 5.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
| Water Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.1 |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slice & Dice | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.7 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
