← Illusive RDO Online Regionals 26/04/26
Fire AetherwingTier 2
at Illusive RDO Online Regionals 26/04/26
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 10.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -2.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Water Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.7 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exalted Mordred | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Positioning | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quickstep Treads | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignition Draw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Salamander's Breath | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tinderflare Pivot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Singeing Leap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |