← Illusive RDO Online Regionals 26/04/26
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Illusive RDO Online Regionals 26/04/26
decks
6
(8.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
33
13-14-6
overall winrate
48.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.3%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
51.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1295
· median 1323
· range 1095–1422
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1095
Q1 1321
Q3 1438
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 10.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Water Fractal | 4.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +3.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.6% | +8.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.3% | -1.7 |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 2.9% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 54.6% | +3.4 |
| Water Genbu | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.4% | +4.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +4.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 43.0% | -5.2 |
| Water Exalted Mordred | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Wind Neos | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.2 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
