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Wind Wakeup ComboTier 1
at Illusive RDO Online Regionals 26/04/26
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 10.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.2% | +7.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -3.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 38.8% | -8.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Water Fractal | 4.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.6% | +3.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -3.7 |
| Water Genbu | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exalted Mordred | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Wind Wakeup Combo decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reconnaissance Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flash Grenade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Aether Dilettante | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Concealed Marksman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quickstep Treads | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Squallbind Pounce | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Draught of Stamina | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windy Leap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sasha, Purifying Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Huang Zhong, Unerring Aim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Haunt Reminiscence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dodge Roll | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Oath of the Sakura | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Invective Instruction | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |