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Water FractalTier 2
at Yolo Tcg Park Malaysia Grand Archive RDO Regional
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 18.2% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 40.1% | -5.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 36.0% | -13.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -2.0 |
| Wind Slimes | 5.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Water Neos | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +3.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blade of Creation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Waves | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Engulf | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Triumphant Mechanic | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wayfinder's Map | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rusted Warshield | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shademist Priestess | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dormant Sacrificial Altar | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne Sentinel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fount Seraphim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reciprocity, Dorumegia's Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lakereaving Chill | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hector, Praetorian Guard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Iron Halo, Forcefield Node | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |