← 5/02/2026 [TCG] League RDO NA Online Grand Archive Regional #1

Fire Crux MageTier 1

at 5/02/2026 [TCG] League RDO NA Online Grand Archive Regional #1

decks
7 (6.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
41 19-18-4
overall winrate
51.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.4% avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
51.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1301 · median 1323 · range 1076–1563 (7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1076 Q1 1237 Q3 1425 1656
14% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 43% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Slimes 9.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.2% -4.5
Wind Razorgale 8.8% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 58.2% +7.9
Fire Crux Lorraine 7.8% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 58.9% +6.6
Water Fractal 6.9% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 51.1% +1.0
Fire Oblation 4.9% 5 1-4-0 20.0% 33.3% 44.8% -3.0
Water Genbu 4.9% 6 2-3-1 41.7% 45.0% 51.0% +0.6
Fire Firebloom Burn 3.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.3% -12.3
Water Aetherwing 3.9% 4 2-1-1 62.5% 56.2% 51.0% +0.6
Wind Seiryuu 3.9% 2 0-0-2 50.0% 50.0% 51.0% +1.0
Fire Luxem Assassin 2.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.6% -5.5
Wind Shadowstrike 2.9% 0
Fire Aetherwing 2.0% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 38.8% -10.8
Fire Exia 2.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.0% +9.7
Fire Suited 2.0% 0
Fire Suzaku 2.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.6% -5.5
Fire Umbra Guardian 2.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.8% -1.1
Horse and Taxes 2.0% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 2.0% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 57.9% +7.6
Wind Astra Cleric 2.0% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 2.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.6% -11.9
Fire Arcane 1.0% 0
Fire Exalted Mordred 1.0% 0
Fire Tera Mage 1.0% 0
Water Astra Cleric 1.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.3% -4.3
Water Astra Ranger 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.2% +5.1
Water Crux Merlin 1.0% 0
Water Exia 1.0% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 1.0% 0
Water Neos 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.7% +4.2
Water Tera Mage 1.0% 0
Water Wind Vanitas 1.0% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.0% 0
Wind Crux Mage 1.0% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.5% +7.2
Wind Nico 1.0% 0
Wind Silvie 1.0% 0
Wind Tera Kongming 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.1% +1.7
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Fragmented Spirit of Fire -1.00 0 1 0
Palvor Sword -1.00 0 1 0
Heavenly Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Liminal Guide -1.00 0 1 0
Sword of Shadows +1.00 1 0 0
Sword of Seeking -1.00 0 1 0
Meltdown -1.00 0 1 0
Gentle Respite +1.00 1 0 0
Nascent Blast +1.00 1 0 0
Cremation Ritual +1.00 1 0 0
Tome of Sorcery +1.00 1 0 0
Sabela, Gossamer Penance -1.00 0 1 0
Reduce to Ash +1.00 1 0 0
Spirit of Fire +1.00 1 0 0
Angel Attendant +1.00 1 0 0
Nimue, Cursed Touch +1.00 1 0 0
Expel the Departed -1.00 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +1.00 1 0 0
Fluffy Shopkeep -1.00 0 1 0
Flamewreath Call -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/50924/archetypes/Fire Crux Mage