← 5/02/2026 [TCG] League RDO NA Online Grand Archive Regional #1
Water GenbuTier 1
at 5/02/2026 [TCG] League RDO NA Online Grand Archive Regional #1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 9.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.8% | +1.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.8% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.9% | +2.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.9% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 49.0% | -0.6 |
| Water Fractal | 6.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.8% | -5.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exalted Mordred | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.6 |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -2.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 5 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 5 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamond Ribbon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shademist Priestess | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |