← 5/02/2026 [TCG] League RDO NA Online Grand Archive Regional #1
Water FractalTier 2
at 5/02/2026 [TCG] League RDO NA Online Grand Archive Regional #1
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 9.8% | 5 | 2-1-2 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 51.8% | +1.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.8% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 49.5% | -0.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.1% | -8.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 45.0% | -3.7 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.7% | -6.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 43.0% | -5.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exalted Mordred | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Water Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sablemere, Warden's Grip | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Return to the Archive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |