← Santa Clara Covention Center NorCal Regional hosted by Final Cut TCG
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Santa Clara Covention Center NorCal Regional hosted by Final Cut TCG
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 14.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.1% | +4.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.2% | +5.2 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 22.4% | -17.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.2% | +3.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 34.6% | -11.5 |
| Water Exia | 4.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.5% | -11.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.3% | -9.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.0% | +22.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 39.8% | -9.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Neos | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.1 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +6.0 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.5 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 11 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 11 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Queen's Cinderhog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Angelic Channeling | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |