← Santa Clara Covention Center NorCal Regional hosted by Final Cut TCG
Water ExiaTier 2
at Santa Clara Covention Center NorCal Regional hosted by Final Cut TCG
decks
3
(4.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
7-9-1
overall winrate
44.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.9%
avg ELO -2.8 per match
expected value
47.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1294
· median 1280
· range 1173–1430
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1042
Q1 1226
Q3 1428
1648
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 14.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.6% | -14.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.5% | +11.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.6% | +7.9 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.3% | -8.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.3% | -23.5 |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
