← Santa Clara Covention Center NorCal Regional hosted by Final Cut TCG
Water FractalTier 1
at Santa Clara Covention Center NorCal Regional hosted by Final Cut TCG
decks
4
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23
15-6-2
overall winrate
69.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.0%
avg ELO +4.5 per match
expected value
54.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1427
· median 1433
· range 1193–1648
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1042
Q1 1226
Q3 1428
1648
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 14.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.7% | -6.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.4% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 77.6% | +17.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.8% | -6.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.9 |
| Water Exia | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.8% | +8.4 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.6% | +6.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.0% | -27.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
