← Santa Clara Covention Center NorCal Regional hosted by Final Cut TCG

Fire SlimesTier 1

at Santa Clara Covention Center NorCal Regional hosted by Final Cut TCG

decks
9 (14.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
42 21-18-3
overall winrate
53.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.9% avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
50.4% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1369 · median 1387 · range 1202–1436 (9 pilots with an ELO rating)
1042 Q1 1226 Q3 1428 1648
11% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 11% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Mage 9.4% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 44.9% -4.9
Fire Crux Lorraine 7.8% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 33.9% -15.5
Water Fractal 6.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 56.3% +6.0
Wind Crux Lorraine 6.2% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 68.4% +17.7
Fire Oblation 4.7% 5 2-3-0 40.0% 44.4% 38.1% -6.8
Fire Suzaku 4.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.0% +9.6
Water Exia 4.7% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 65.4% +14.8
Fire Aggro 3.1% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 41.2% -8.4
Water Crux Mage 3.1% 0
Water Genbu 3.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.5% -15.1
Water Tera Kongming 3.1% 4 2-1-1 62.5% 56.2% 56.9% +4.4
Wind Astra Cleric 3.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.6% +9.0
Wind Seiryuu 3.1% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 37.7% -7.9
Wind Umbra Ranger 3.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.3% +8.6
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.6% 0
Fire Neos 1.6% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 46.8% -3.0
Fire Tera Diao Chan 1.6% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 58.5% +8.1
Fire Umbra Guardian 1.6% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 46.8% -3.1
Horse and Taxes 1.6% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 45.5% -7.2
Water Crux Assassin 1.6% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.7% +9.1
Water Whirlpool Mill 1.6% 0
Wind Exia Jin 1.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.3% -17.2
Wind Luxem Zander 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 64.7% +23.6
Wind Razorgale 1.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.4% -12.1
Wind Shadowstrike 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 64.8% +23.7
Wind Slimes 1.6% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 1.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 35.8% -22.7
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 4 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Kind Beastcaller, Lustrous Slime, Verdant Scepter. Losers more often ran: Imperial Countermeasure, Gaia's Songbird, Tariff Ring.

Played more by winners
Kind Beastcaller
Winning decks ran 3.5 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Lustrous Slime
Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Verdant Scepter
Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Protector Raccoon
Winning decks ran 2.2 copies on average, losing decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Ghastly Slime
Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Twilight Slime
Winning decks ran 2.0 copies on average, losing decks 2.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Played more by losers
Imperial Countermeasure
Losing decks ran 1.2 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Gaia's Songbird
Losing decks ran 3.5 copies on average, winning decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Tariff Ring
Losing decks ran 0.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 1.5 copies on average, winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Nascent Blast
Losing decks ran 1.5 copies on average, winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Expel the Departed
Losing decks ran 2.5 copies on average, winning decks 1.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Imperial Countermeasure -0.75 0 3 0
Kind Beastcaller +0.75 3 0 1
Lustrous Slime +0.75 3 0 1
Gaia's Songbird -0.75 0 3 1
Verdant Scepter +0.75 3 0 1
Tariff Ring -0.75 0 3 0
Resolute Stand -0.50 1 3 0
Forest Cake -0.50 0 2 1
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.50 2 0 1
Nascent Blast -0.50 1 3 0
Safeguard Amulet -0.50 0 2 0
Protector Raccoon +0.25 2 1 1
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.25 1 0 0
Undeniable Truth -0.25 0 1 3
Mystic Purifier +0.25 1 0 0
Expel the Departed -0.25 1 2 1
Ghastly Slime +0.25 2 1 0
Cremation Ritual +0.25 1 0 3
Escape the Wreckage -0.25 1 2 1
Twilight Slime +0.25 2 1 1
Portentous Tanggu -0.25 0 1 3
Topsy Decree -0.25 0 1 1
Smoke Out +0.25 1 0 0
Nullifying Lantern +0.25 2 1 0
Infernal Vessel +0.25 1 0 0
Reduce to Ash +0.25 1 0 1
Scavenging Raccoon -0.25 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror -0.25 0 1 0
Orb of Sealing +0.25 1 0 0
Fluffy Shopkeep +0.25 1 0 0
Backup Charger +0.25 1 0 0
Perishing Florets +0.25 1 0 0
Angelic Channeling +0.00 1 1 0
Slime Eruption +0.00 1 1 2
Blissful Calling +0.00 1 1 0
Inferno Slime +0.00 1 1 0
Tera Sight +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/51086/archetypes/Fire Slimes