Fire OblationTier 1
at Regional 0425
decks
2
(4.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
6-3-2
overall winrate
63.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.3%
avg ELO +3.6 per match
expected value
54.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1330
· median 1330
· range 1181–1478
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1099
Q1 1181
Q3 1386
1597
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 9.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.7% | -4.1 |
| Chess | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
