Water Umbra AliceTier 2
at Regional 0425
decks
1
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
0-4-1
overall winrate
10.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.4%
avg ELO -9.6 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1152
· median 1152
· range 1152–1152
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1099
Q1 1181
Q3 1386
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 9.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
