Water FractalTier 2
at Regional 0425
decks
4
(9.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
9-14-1
overall winrate
39.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.0%
avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
45.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1214
· median 1186
· range 1157–1327
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1099
Q1 1181
Q3 1386
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.3 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 7.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 35.2% | -11.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 65.3% | +11.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +2.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.4% | -12.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -3.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +1.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Wind Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
