Fire Umbra AliceTier 1
at Regional 0425
decks
3
(7.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
6-7-5
overall winrate
47.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.3%
avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1285
· median 1241
· range 1196–1417
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1099
Q1 1181
Q3 1386
1597
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 9.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 64.8% | +11.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.8% | +2.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +7.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.3% | -12.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +1.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -15.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -20.7 |
| Water Umbra Alice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Wind Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
