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Fire AggroTier 2
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 10.6% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 46.1% | -2.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 48.7% | -0.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Water Genbu | 5.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.7 |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.9% | +14.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.5% | +2.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.1% | +12.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -3.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -4.4 |
| Water Exia | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.4% | +10.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.7% | +3.6 |
| Luxem Mordred | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.0% | +12.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.4% | +10.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Fire Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Water Suited | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 56 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 56 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortal Ambition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Forgelight Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tweedledum, Rattled Dancer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flagrant Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |