← Apex RDO Regionals - Celestial Showdown
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Apex RDO Regionals - Celestial Showdown
decks
11
(5.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
72
25-40-7
overall winrate
39.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.9%
avg ELO -4.4 per match
expected value
43.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1254
· median 1225
· range 1091–1563
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
949
Q1 1172
Q3 1379
1685
18% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
36% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 10.6% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 40.9% | -4.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 42.0% | -4.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.0% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 42.2% | -5.0 |
| Water Genbu | 5.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.3% | -7.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.3% | -9.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +0.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 56.2% | +4.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.4% | -20.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -5.0 |
| Water Exia | 2.5% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 36.1% | -8.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.9% | -9.7 |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Luxem Mordred | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.4% | -9.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.7% | +6.5 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 1.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 35.3% | -11.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.1% | +13.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.4% | -16.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +7.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -4.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Suited | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.3 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.4% | -1.2 |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Angelic Channeling, Crystallized Destiny, Heavenly Guide. Losers more often ran: Protect Her At All Costs, Imperial Countermeasure, Regal Inquisition.
Angelic Channeling
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Crystallized Destiny
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Heavenly Guide
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Expel the Departed
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Nascent Blast
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Protect Her At All Costs
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Imperial Countermeasure
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Regal Inquisition
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Spirit Blade: Ascension
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Protect Her At All Costs | -1.00 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Angelic Channeling | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Imperial Countermeasure | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Angel Attendant | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Liminal Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Reprogram | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flared Iridescence | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Benediction Angel | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blaze Alight | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sacred Engulfment | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Facet the Forgotten | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sabela, Gossamer Penance | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Claimed From Beyond | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |