← Apex RDO Regionals - Celestial Showdown
Water ExiaTier 2
at Apex RDO Regionals - Celestial Showdown
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 10.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 63.4% | +10.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.9% | -3.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +3.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 63.9% | +8.9 |
| Water Genbu | 5.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.4% | +12.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.3% | -9.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.6% | +17.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.6% | -10.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.8% | +9.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Mordred | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Fire Suited | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Suited | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Angel Attendant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Engulf | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fortuitous Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Accelerate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Abyssal Heaven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enchanted Fete | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shademist Priestess | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |