← Apex RDO Regionals - Celestial Showdown
Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Apex RDO Regionals - Celestial Showdown
decks
2
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
5-9-3
overall winrate
38.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.6%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1193
· median 1193
· range 1161–1225
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
949
Q1 1172
Q3 1379
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 10.6% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 50.8% | +0.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.6% | +16.9 |
| Water Genbu | 5.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.1% | -14.3 |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.7 |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Mordred | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Suited | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Arcane decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
