← Apex RDO Regionals - Celestial Showdown
Wind RazorgaleTier 1
at Apex RDO Regionals - Celestial Showdown
decks
11
(5.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
69
39-20-10
overall winrate
63.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.9%
avg ELO +1.7 per match
expected value
56.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1359
· median 1295
· range 1148–1624
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
949
Q1 1172
Q3 1379
1685
45% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
18% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 10.6% | 8 | 4-2-2 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 47.6% | -1.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 63.4% | +7.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.0% | 12 | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 40.6% | 41.0% | -3.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.5% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 55.1% | +3.8 |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +4.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.6% | -4.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 37.4% | -12.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 52.6% | +1.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.7 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.3% | +11.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 52.4% | +1.8 |
| Water Exia | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 32.4% | -13.2 |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 58.4% | +6.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Mordred | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.0% | +7.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.5% | +18.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Suited | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.9% | +8.5 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
The 11 public Wind Razorgale decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Protector Raccoon, Expeditious Opening, Fluffy Shopkeep. Losers more often ran: Nullifying Mirror, Unbroken Mustang.
Protector Raccoon
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Expeditious Opening
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Bandit, Gaze Leader
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Break Apart
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Sasha, Purifying Acolyte
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Nullifying Mirror
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Unbroken Mustang
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 54 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 46 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Protector Raccoon | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expeditious Opening | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bandit, Gaze Leader | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Break Apart | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scout the Land | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cyclical Breeze | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tend the Land | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Floral Arrangement | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blessed Clergy | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Essence Crucible | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Speed Potion | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Sasha, Purifying Acolyte | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Zephyr | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Three Visits | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Alchemist's Cauldron | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Distilled Water | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ventus, Staff of Zephyrs | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bagua of Cardinal Fate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Alchemist | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Galestream Insight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Calming Breeze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spellshield: Wind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Obscured Offering | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |