← Apex RDO Regionals - Celestial Showdown
Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at Apex RDO Regionals - Celestial Showdown
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 10.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.4% | +0.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 73.4% | +17.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Water Genbu | 5.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +20.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Mordred | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Suited | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Return to the Archive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wisdom's Reprise | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Lapse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Void's Cloak | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Angelic Channeling | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lightveil Agent | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Elyan, Lustre Loyalty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nefarious Timepiece | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |