Fire AetherwingTier 1
at CakeTCG RDO Online Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 14.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 59.7% | +7.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +2.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 4.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Mordred | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flash Grenade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Positioning | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ranger Boots | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetherwing's Ward | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Contraband Revolver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Salamander's Breath | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Singeing Leap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |