Fire SlimesTier 2

at CakeTCG RDO Online Regional

decks

7 (14.9% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

30 12-16-2

overall winrate

43.3%

ELO-adjusted winrate

48.2% avg ELO -0.7 per match

expected value

46.7% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

48.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill · average

mean ELO 1368 · median 1359 · range 1189–1560 (7 pilots with an ELO rating)

1090 Q1 1297 Q3 1494 1656

14% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 43% in the bottom.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Wind Razorgale	10.6%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	45.6%	-7.1
Fire Umbra Guardian	8.5%	6	3-2-1	58.3%	55.0%	52.9%	+1.5
Fire Aetherwing	6.4%	3	0-3-0	0.0%	28.6%	40.3%	-7.3
Fire Crux Mage	4.3%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	53.2%	+5.1
Fire Suited	4.3%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	43.1%	-11.1
Fire Suzaku	4.3%	2	0-2-0	0.0%	33.3%	43.9%	-5.9
Water Aetherwing	4.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Exia	4.3%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	48.6%	-2.2
Water Fractal	4.3%	2	0-1-1	25.0%	41.7%	46.1%	-3.7
Water Genbu	4.3%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	57.5%	+12.0
Wind Astra Cleric	4.3%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	52.6%	+4.2
Wind Shadowstrike	4.3%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	52.4%	+2.3
Wind Wakeup Combo	4.3%	2	0-2-0	0.0%	33.3%	45.5%	-4.3
Fire Arcane	2.1%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Crux Lorraine	2.1%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	54.9%	+4.7
Fire Luxem Assassin	2.1%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	44.1%	-9.5
Fire Oblation	2.1%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	58.5%	+13.6
Luxem Mordred	2.1%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	54.5%	+7.2
Water Allies	2.1%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Whirlpool Mill	2.1%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Byakko	2.1%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	46.9%	-3.0
Wind Seiryuu	2.1%	0	—	—	—	—	—

Decklists · 7 from this event

The 7 public Fire Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Angelic Channeling, Undeniable Truth. Losers more often ran: Limitless Slime, Verdant Slime.

↑ Played more by winners