Water ExiaTier 1
at CakeTCG RDO Online Regional
decks
2
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
4-5-2
overall winrate
45.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.4%
avg ELO -2.4 per match
expected value
50.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1450
· median 1450
· range 1276–1624
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1090
Q1 1297
Q3 1494
1656
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 14.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Water Genbu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Mordred | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
