Water FractalTier 1
at CakeTCG RDO Online Regional
decks
2
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-4-2
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.0%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
51.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1305
· median 1305
· range 1293–1317
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1090
Q1 1297
Q3 1494
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 14.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.9% | +3.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.1% | +4.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Water Exia | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Water Genbu | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Mordred | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
