EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 貓腳印松江店 RDO店冠賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
2nd
Wind Wakeup Combo
55.9%
↑ top
1st
Fire Crux Lorraine
57.3%
↑ top
3rd
Wind Crux Lorraine
54.3%
↑ top
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 1.6% | 8 | 81.2% | 64.1% | 57.3% | 54.7% | 1482 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 1.6% | 9 | 77.8% | 54.5% | 55.9% | 51.4% | 1591 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 5 | 7.9% | 27 | 63.0% | 45.3% | 54.3% | 48.3% | 1408 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 1.6% | 8 | 68.8% | 48.3% | 53.4% | 48.3% | 1474 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 4.8% | 16 | 68.8% | 60.7% | 53.4% | 51.6% | 1336 | — |
| 6 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.6% | 7 | 57.1% | 31.2% | 53.0% | 45.5% | 1568 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Suzaku | 4 | 6.3% | 15 | 60.0% | 66.9% | 52.8% | 55.7% | 1170 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Arcane | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 66.7% | 65.5% | 52.5% | 54.3% | 1300 | — |
| 9 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 1.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 54.2% | 52.5% | 51.3% | 1386 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Exia | 2 | 3.2% | 13 | 61.5% | 64.9% | 52.2% | 55.0% | 1282 | — |
| 11 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 3.2% | 13 | 53.8% | 49.9% | 51.9% | 51.0% | 1351 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Slimes | 1 | 1.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 53.7% | 51.4% | 55.0% | 1251 | — |
| 13 | Fire Aetherwing | 3 | 4.8% | 12 | 45.8% | 56.5% | 50.9% | 53.5% | 1168 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 4.8% | 16 | 56.2% | 52.7% | 50.7% | 50.3% | 1386 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.6% | 4 | 25.0% | 34.1% | 50.0% | 47.9% | 1307 | — |
| 16 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 2 | 3.2% | 10 | 45.0% | 43.4% | 49.1% | 48.2% | 1303 | — |
| 17 | Water Fractal | 4 | 6.3% | 18 | 44.4% | 54.9% | 49.0% | 52.2% | 1242 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Diana | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 41.7% | 44.2% | 48.7% | 48.5% | 1237 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Wind Neos | 1 | 1.6% | 7 | 57.1% | 59.6% | 48.4% | 50.5% | 1249 | — |
| 20 | Wind Seiryuu | 5 | 7.9% | 30 | 45.0% | 53.2% | 48.1% | 50.3% | 1263 | — |
| 21 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 3.2% | 12 | 45.8% | 44.0% | 47.9% | 46.2% | 1343 | — |
| 22 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 3.2% | 12 | 45.8% | 55.1% | 47.7% | 51.0% | 1180 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Wind Razorgale | 4 | 6.3% | 16 | 43.8% | 45.6% | 47.7% | 47.0% | 1300 | — |
| 24 | Water Whirlpool Mill | 3 | 4.8% | 18 | 38.9% | 46.0% | 47.5% | 48.5% | 1261 | — |
| 25 | Water Genbu | 2 | 3.2% | 12 | 41.7% | 52.1% | 46.9% | 49.6% | 1235 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Wind Arcane | 3 | 4.8% | 17 | 35.3% | 35.9% | 45.9% | 45.0% | 1264 | — |
| 27 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 1.6% | 4 | 25.0% | 32.0% | 44.3% | 41.6% | 1338 | — |
| 28 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 1.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 42.7% | 43.6% | 43.3% | 1315 | — |
| 29 | Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1 | 1.6% | 2 | 0.0% | 40.4% | 40.0% | 44.5% | 1099 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 1.6% | 3 | 0.0% | 24.2% | 40.0% | 38.7% | 1301 | — |
| 31 | Water Luxem Mordred | 1 | 1.6% | 4 | 0.0% | 37.3% | 40.0% | 44.8% | 1023 | ↓ low |
| 32 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 1.6% | 2 | 0.0% | 38.3% | 40.0% | 42.8% | 1243 | ↓ low |