← Whimsy RDO Store Championships
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Whimsy RDO Store Championships
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 9.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exalted Mordred | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Water Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Numinous Monk | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Angel Attendant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Infusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heirloom of Materia | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sabela, Gossamer Penance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dummy Trainer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |