← Whimsy RDO Store Championships
Fire SuzakuTier 1
at Whimsy RDO Store Championships
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 9.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.7% | +0.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 65.9% | +11.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.9% | +8.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Water Exalted Mordred | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.9% | -10.7 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expose Darkness | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Da Qiao, Cinderbinder | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Broken Promises | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Avatar of Suzaku | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |