← Whimsy RDO Store Championships
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Whimsy RDO Store Championships
decks
4
(9.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
16-5-3
overall winrate
72.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.6%
avg ELO +3.2 per match
expected value
57.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1521
· median 1555
· range 1334–1642
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1156
Q1 1280
Q3 1449
1642
75% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.4% | +16.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.3% | -0.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.8% | +3.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.8% | -8.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.3% | +1.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +20.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.0% | -22.3 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exalted Mordred | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Water Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
