EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 漫果子大直店5/9 RDO店冠賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.8% | 8 | 81.2% | 69.7% | 57.3% | 55.7% | 1386 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 3.8% | 6 | 66.7% | 42.1% | 56.4% | 50.7% | 1543 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 4 | 15.4% | 21 | 64.3% | 65.2% | 55.4% | 56.3% | 1369 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.8% | 7 | 64.3% | 56.5% | 55.4% | 53.3% | 1389 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Arcane | 1 | 3.8% | 6 | 66.7% | 64.6% | 51.0% | 53.6% | 1300 | — |
| 6 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 7.7% | 10 | 60.0% | 48.6% | 50.3% | 46.7% | 1406 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 50.0% | 40.8% | 50.0% | 46.4% | 1416 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 7.7% | 12 | 62.5% | 65.3% | 49.8% | 51.2% | 1356 | — |
| 9 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 52.5% | 48.6% | 51.9% | 1161 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Neos | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 53.7% | 48.0% | 51.3% | 1128 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 36.9% | 47.5% | 43.5% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.0% | 46.7% | 48.8% | 1203 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 7.7% | 9 | 38.9% | 38.3% | 46.2% | 45.4% | 1296 | — |
| 14 | Slimes | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 41.3% | 44.4% | 42.8% | 1315 | — |
| 15 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 7.7% | 9 | 33.3% | 44.8% | 44.4% | 47.3% | 1268 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 42.4% | 43.7% | 43.5% | 1315 | — |
| 17 | Wind Exalted Alice | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 20.0% | 38.1% | 43.3% | 44.7% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.8% | 4 | 0.0% | 19.7% | 40.0% | 37.8% | 1307 | — |
| 19 | Fire Tera Mage | 1 | 3.8% | 4 | 0.0% | 36.4% | 36.2% | 42.7% | 1068 | ↓ low |